Let’s not go into
what various pre-poll surveys say. Let’s see what electoral numbers in Amethi
say how difficult a contest it may be for Rahul Gandhi this time.
And the previous
electoral numbers say it is going to be a tough electoral battle for Rahul in
Amethi time.
Amethi constituency,
created in 1967, has been a Congress bastion. It was ruled by non-Congress parties
only twice, and that too only for four years. First, it was post Emergency in
1977, when a Janata Party candidate had won and remained its representative in
Lok Sabha till 1980.
Then party hopper
and Amethi prince Sanjay Sinh won on a BJP ticket in 1998. But being a prince
was no guarantee for ground connect in Amethi with its Nehru-Gandhi connect.
Sanjay Sinh was
lucky that he became Lok Sabha MP from Amethi when Congress was going through a
tough phase with no Gandhi leader at the top. Sonia Gandhi who had earlier
refused to enter politics had only recently joined Congress and Sanjay Sinh had
a chance.
But when Sonia
decided to contest from Amethi in 1999, history was going to repeat itself, as
it had done in the past. Sinh who had earlier
seen a massive defeat against Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, had a massive electoral loss
from a Gandhi, once again. Sonia Gandhi won over by 300,000 votes, with a
victory margin of 48%.
When Rahul decided
to join politics, Amethi was chosen as his constituency and Sonia Gandhi
shifted to Rae Bareli, another Nehru-Gandhi electoral bastion in Uttar Pradesh.
Rahul won his first Lok Sabha election from Amethi handsomely, with a winning
margin of 49% and went on to amplify his victory margin in 2009 by 8%.
1999 Amethi Lok Sabha Election
·
Sonia Gandhi - Congress
- 418960 votes
·
Dr. Sanjay Sinh - BJP -
118948 votes
·
Margin - 300012 - 48.07%
of total valid votes
2004 Amethi Lok Sabha Election
·
Rahul Gandhi - Congress
- 390179 votes
·
Chandra Prakash Mishra -
BSP - 99326 votes
·
Margin - 290853 - 49.33%
of total valid votes
2009 Amethi Lok Sabha Election
·
Rahul Gandhi - Congress
- 464195 votes
·
Asheesh Shukla - BSP -
93997 votes
·
Margin - 370198 - 57.25%
of total valid votes
But the last Lok Sabha election in Amethi in 2014 saw a drastic
reduction in Rahul’s winning margin. His victory margin of 57.25% votes in 2009
reduced to 12.36% in 2014. Obviously it was due to many factors – the Narendra
Modi wave, anti-incumbency against 10 years of the United Progressive Alliance
government led by Congress and a strong BJP leader like Smriti Irani as his
political opponent in the constituency.
2014 AMETHI LOK SABHA ELECTION
·
Rahul Gandhi - Congress
- 408651 votes
·
Smriti Irani - BJP -
300748 votes
·
Margin - 107903 - 12.36%
of total valid votes
Also, while Rahul
might increase his winning tally in Amethi in 2009, it was during Rahul
representation only that the Nehru-Gandhi grip on Amethi had started
deteriorating somewhere, as add-on election numbers say.
In 2007 assembly
election in Uttar Pradesh, Congress had won three out of five assembly constituencies
in the Amethi parliamentary constituency. In 2012, the winning number came down
to two while in the most recent assembly polls in 2017, the grand old party of
India failed to win any seat.
2017
|
2012
|
2007
|
|
Tiloi
|
BJP
|
Congress
|
SP
|
Salon
|
BJP
|
SP
|
Congress
|
Jagdishpur
|
BJP
|
Congress
|
Congress
|
Gauriganj
|
SP
|
SP
|
BSP
|
Amethi
|
BJP
|
SP
|
Congress
|
Electoral history
of Amethi parliamentary constituency says number of assembly constituencies end
up randomly in choosing their representatives irrespective of Congress
representing the Lok Sabha constituency but the differentiator here is the Congress
position in assembly constituencies.
In 2007 and 2012
assembly elections, Congress was either winner or runner-up in Amethi assembly
constituencies but in 2017, it was pushed to 3rd and 4th
spot in two seats.
Congress position
in Amethi assembly constituencies
2017
|
2012
|
2007
|
|
Tiloi
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
Salon
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
Jagdishpur
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
Gauriganj
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Amethi
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
With
these numbers in backdrop, Rahul is contesting again from Amethi that is voting
today. And Smriti Irani is again his political rival. And she looks like a
formidable rival this time as she has maintained a regular connect with Amethi
in the last five years. She keeps on visiting the constituency and claims to
have bring down many development works to there.
Also
why Rahul Gandhi chose Wayanad in Kerala as the second parliamentary constituency
to contest only adds to the prospects of Rahul’s chances in Amethi. BJP leaders
say Rahul is not confident of a positive result in Amethi and that why he has
chosen Wayanad, a minority dominated Lok Sabha constituency.
