The best way to know the self is feeling oneself at the moments of reckoning. The feeling of being alone, just with your senses, may lead you to think more consciously. More and more of such moments may sensitize ‘you towards you’, towards others. We become regular with introspection and retrospection. We get ‘the’ gradual connect to the higher self we may name Spirituality or God or just a Humane Conscious. We tend to get a rhythm again in life. We need to learn the art of being lonely in crowd while being part of the crowd. A multitude of loneliness in mosaic of relations! One needs to feel it severally, with conscience, before making it a way of life. One needs to live several such lonely moments. One needs to live severallyalone.

Monday, 6 May 2019

NUMBERS SAY AMETHI IS A TOUGH BATTLE FOR RAHUL GANDHI THIS TIME


Let’s not go into what various pre-poll surveys say. Let’s see what electoral numbers in Amethi say how difficult a contest it may be for Rahul Gandhi this time.

And the previous electoral numbers say it is going to be a tough electoral battle for Rahul in Amethi time.

Amethi constituency, created in 1967, has been a Congress bastion. It was ruled by non-Congress parties only twice, and that too only for four years. First, it was post Emergency in 1977, when a Janata Party candidate had won and remained its representative in Lok Sabha till 1980.

Then party hopper and Amethi prince Sanjay Sinh won on a BJP ticket in 1998. But being a prince was no guarantee for ground connect in Amethi with its Nehru-Gandhi connect.  

Sanjay Sinh was lucky that he became Lok Sabha MP from Amethi when Congress was going through a tough phase with no Gandhi leader at the top. Sonia Gandhi who had earlier refused to enter politics had only recently joined Congress and Sanjay Sinh had a chance.

But when Sonia decided to contest from Amethi in 1999, history was going to repeat itself, as it had done in the past.  Sinh who had earlier seen a massive defeat against Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, had a massive electoral loss from a Gandhi, once again. Sonia Gandhi won over by 300,000 votes, with a victory margin of 48%.

When Rahul decided to join politics, Amethi was chosen as his constituency and Sonia Gandhi shifted to Rae Bareli, another Nehru-Gandhi electoral bastion in Uttar Pradesh. Rahul won his first Lok Sabha election from Amethi handsomely, with a winning margin of 49% and went on to amplify his victory margin in 2009 by 8%.

1999 Amethi Lok Sabha Election
·         Sonia Gandhi - Congress - 418960 votes
·         Dr. Sanjay Sinh - BJP - 118948 votes
·         Margin - 300012 - 48.07% of total valid votes

2004 Amethi Lok Sabha Election
·         Rahul Gandhi - Congress - 390179 votes
·         Chandra Prakash Mishra - BSP - 99326 votes
·         Margin - 290853 - 49.33% of total valid votes

2009 Amethi Lok Sabha Election
·         Rahul Gandhi - Congress - 464195 votes
·         Asheesh Shukla - BSP - 93997 votes
·         Margin - 370198 - 57.25% of total valid votes

But the last Lok Sabha election in Amethi in 2014 saw a drastic reduction in Rahul’s winning margin. His victory margin of 57.25% votes in 2009 reduced to 12.36% in 2014. Obviously it was due to many factors – the Narendra Modi wave, anti-incumbency against 10 years of the United Progressive Alliance government led by Congress and a strong BJP leader like Smriti Irani as his political opponent in the constituency.

2014 AMETHI LOK SABHA ELECTION
·         Rahul Gandhi - Congress - 408651 votes
·         Smriti Irani - BJP - 300748 votes
·         Margin - 107903 - 12.36% of total valid votes

Also, while Rahul might increase his winning tally in Amethi in 2009, it was during Rahul representation only that the Nehru-Gandhi grip on Amethi had started deteriorating somewhere, as add-on election numbers say.

In 2007 assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, Congress had won three out of five assembly constituencies in the Amethi parliamentary constituency. In 2012, the winning number came down to two while in the most recent assembly polls in 2017, the grand old party of India failed to win any seat.


2017
2012
2007
Tiloi
BJP
Congress
SP
Salon
BJP
SP
Congress
Jagdishpur  
BJP
Congress
Congress
Gauriganj
SP
SP
BSP
Amethi
BJP
SP
Congress

Electoral history of Amethi parliamentary constituency says number of assembly constituencies end up randomly in choosing their representatives irrespective of Congress representing the Lok Sabha constituency but the differentiator here is the Congress position in assembly constituencies.

In 2007 and 2012 assembly elections, Congress was either winner or runner-up in Amethi assembly constituencies but in 2017, it was pushed to 3rd and 4th spot in two seats.

Congress position in Amethi assembly constituencies


2017
2012
2007
Tiloi
3
1
2
Salon
2
2
1
Jagdishpur
2
1
1
Gauriganj
2
2
2
Amethi
4
2
1   

With these numbers in backdrop, Rahul is contesting again from Amethi that is voting today. And Smriti Irani is again his political rival. And she looks like a formidable rival this time as she has maintained a regular connect with Amethi in the last five years. She keeps on visiting the constituency and claims to have bring down many development works to there.

Also why Rahul Gandhi chose Wayanad in Kerala as the second parliamentary constituency to contest only adds to the prospects of Rahul’s chances in Amethi. BJP leaders say Rahul is not confident of a positive result in Amethi and that why he has chosen Wayanad, a minority dominated Lok Sabha constituency.

©SantoshChaubey 

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