The country goes back to presidential style of contest, a trend synonymous with
Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Not seen post 1980.
The
politics and the political rivals made 2014 parliamentary election a
presidential style contest again, with Narendra Modi being the central point of
the election. It only added to the phenomenon called Modi Wave with BJP
sweeping the polls with full majority, a first in India post 1984 parliamentary
election.
And
in 2019, Narendra Modi has excelled, if exit poll outcomes are true, winning
again with better numbers, and if we go by some exit poll outcomes, with
absolute majority. The presidential style contest of India’s parliamentary elections
is back, Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi way.
The
Narendra Modi wave, it seems, is bigger this time, in the Narendra Modi Vs
Rahul Gandhi and others fight.
Narendra
Modi is the second non-Congress prime-minister to come back in power after Atal
Bihari Vajpayee, but the first to come back in power with full majority. The governments
run by Atal Bihari Vajpayee needed support from other parties to get past the
full majority mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha.
It
will be the biggest political swing post 1980. Narendra Modi has repeated the Congress
feat of forming government in two subsequent polls, in 1980 and 1984, with full
majority.
Narendra
Modi gave hope to people in 2014 and aspirations in 2019, and voters, it seems,
have believed him again.
Modi’s
look east policy worked. BJP makes strong inroads in West Bengal and Odisha,
replacing Left Front and Congress as parallel political forces, while retaining
its strongholds in north and west India.
But
the party has not gained much in south India with Karnataka being the only
bright spot. No gains in Kerala despite BJP using Sabarimala controversy as
election issue. Kerala saw massive protests against the Supreme Court order and
its implementation by the state government allowing entry of women of all ages
in the Sabarimala Temple. BJP opposed the entry of women of all ages in the
Sabarimala Temple and used it as an electoral issue.
No
Narendra Modi wave in Punjab and south India. 2014 repeats itself in 2019.
Balakot
air strike and Pakistan mattered. Nationalism trumped other electoral issues.
That
India’s foreign policy and a decisive stand towards Pakistan mattered to voters.
The
exit poll outcomes are divided on Uttar Pradesh. According to some, BJP is way
ahead but some give edge to the SP-BSP-RLD alliance as well.
If
BJP wins with good numbers in Uttar Pradesh, it will be a clear indication that
the caste politics was trumped by Modi Wave.
Alternatively,
we can say SP and BSP failed to make their alliance working on the ground and
the votes were not transferred effectively, helping thus BJP in the final
outcome.
That
voters don’t want a hung parliament anymore, be is assembly elections like in Uttar
Pradesh or the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and now in 2019.
That
the political Opposition remains weak, a bad sign for democracy.
With
weakening of politically strong regional satraps, like Mamata Banerjee and
Naveen Patnaik, Centre will be powerful against state government in the federal
structure of India.
That
people believed in BJP’s manifestation of continuity and not in congress
manifestation of hope (NYAY).
The
NDA government focused on last mile delivery and gas connections, toilets, MUDRA
loans and money to farmers reached to intended beneficiaries, something that
matters in elections.
That
Narendra Modi remains a non-corrupt political figure with no takers for the Rafale
controversy.
Congress
and its allies are expected to gain in south India.
Rahul
Gandhi’s Amethi prospects to Wayanad gain?
Left
Front pole almost non-existent in India’s political scene.
No
disruptive change, good for markets and foreign investors.
