First phase of Gujarat state election
is over. The second phase is on 14 December and the results will be out on 18
December. But the chances for the BJP, which has ruled Gujarat since 1995, are not
looking so bright this time. There are, in fact, signs that say the BJP may
lose the polls this time. Signs, that reflect in pre-poll surveys and trends in
election campaign.
PRE-POLL SURVEYS
An opinion poll just days
before the first phase of Gujarat assembly election on 9 December projected it
to be neck and neck contest between Congress and the BJP. The ABP-Lokniti-CSDS
survey projected equal vote share for both parties at 43 per cent. According to
the survey, BJP is expected to win 91-99 seats and Congress 78-86.
Though the survey still gives
the BJP more seats, when we see it in continuation of its previous pre-election
surveys, we can easily see the rising graph of Congress as the campaign is
progressing. The same agency in its November survey had predicted 113-121 seats
for the BJP and 58-64 for Congress while its August opinion poll had given the BJP
even a wider margin projecting 144-152 seats for it against Congress’ 26-32
seats.
Another set of surveys by
Times Now also shows a declining graph for the BJP. Its October survey gave the
BJP 118-134 seats which came down to 106-116 seats in its December tally. On
the other hand, though not much rosy, the Congress pie went up from 49-61 in
October to 63-73 in December.
The BJP is facing 22 years of
anti-incumbency and to make matters worse this time, there are factors that can
derail its juggernaut there, Narendra Modi, demonetisation, GST, atrocities
against Dalits and demands of Patel reservation. Narendra Modi is not the chief
minister of the state and the CSDS opinion poll showed that the trading class
is not happy with demonetisation and GST. And the biggest faces of Patel
reservation protests and the movement against Dalit atrocities, Hardik Patel
and Jignesh Mewani, are with Congress.
DEPLOYMENT OF A LARGE TEAM TO
COUNTER ONE PERSON
The BJP has unleashed its
full force in the Gujarat campaign. Apart from dozens of union ministers, many
chief ministers and senior BJP leaders, Narendra Modi himself has devoted
fulltime to the party’s prospects in Gujarat. He is addressing multiple rallies
in a day with at least a big rally scheduled in every district of the state.
Though Vijay Rupani is Gujarat’s chief minister, the BJP face in the Gujarat
polls is no doubt Narendra Modi. And all this is to counter a single face from
Congress, Rahul Gandhi, who has been pivot of Congress’ campaign.
RELEASE OF MANIFESTO IN THE
11TH HOUR
The BJP released its
manifesto just a day before the first phase of Gujarat state election. Though the
party quoted busy campaign schedule and technicalities behind this delay, the
truth is, the BJP move came after Congress made it an electoral issue with
Rahul Gandhi calling it a disrespect to the people of Gujarat. Congress had
released its manifesto on 4 December.
RAHUL GANDHI’S UNORTHODOX
MOVES
Two stands taken by Rahul
Gandhi stand out here, saying he is a mature politician now and can take his journey
as Congress’ president further. First, he had issued a written instruction to
his party leaders last month not to launch personal attacks against Narendra
Modi, seeing how a long list of below the belt comments by Congress leaders
targeting Narendra Modi had hit the party’s electoral prospects, be it Sonia
Gandhi’s ‘maut ka saudagar’ (merchant of death) or Mani Shankar Aiyar’s ‘chaiwala’
or his very own ‘khoon ki dalali’ in last year.
Second, he immediately got
Mani Shankar Aiyar suspended from the Congress party for his ‘neech aadmi’
(vile man) comment on Modi saying, “The Congress has a different culture and
heritage and I do not appreciate the tone and language used by Mr Mani Shankar
Aiyer to address the PM and both, the Congress and I expect him to apologise
for what he said.”
While asserting that “the BJP
and PM routinely use filthy language to attack the Congress party”, Rahul, at
the same time, denied the BJP the plausibility of using Congress’ personal
attacks on Narendra Modi in its favour. And it is evident from the fact that
Aiyar’s ‘neech aadmi’ jibe could not get much echo beyond few rallies.
RELIGION CARD
Rahul Gandhi started his
Gujarat election campaign from Dwarka and has visited several temples across the
state so far while on the campaign trail. He has declared his family and
himself ‘Shiv bhakts’ (devotees of Lord Shiva) and is trying consciously to
adopt the Soft Hindutva image to counter the BJP’s Hindutva politics. And it
seems he has been successful so far in his attempts.
Otherwise the BJP would not
have made Rahul Gandhi’s religion such a big issue, and that too based on a
fake news. The BJP went big time saying Rahul was not a Hindu as he signed a
non-Hindu visitor’s register during his Somnath Temple visit, a claim which was
later refuted by the Somnath Temple trust.
‘DEVELOPMENT IN GUJARAT’
NARRATIVE MISSING
The BJP initially said its
poll plank was all about development in Gujarat, something that would speak for
itself. To counter it, Congress mounted a well-lubricated social media campaign
focusing on ‘how development in the state had gone crazy’. But one look at BJP
campaign speeches and one can easily see the development plank missing from
there, something even its ally Shiv Sena pointed out today in its editorial
Saamna.
DRAGGING PAKISTAN AND CHINA
IN GUJARAT POLLS
The final days of campaigning
in Gujarat has seen Narendra Modi and the BJP dragging in the issue of China
and Pakistan meddling in Gujarat polls with Narendra Modi going as far as to
allege that many including former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had a secret
meeting involving the High Commissioner of Pakistan and an ex-Pakistani
minister to discuss the Gujarat election.
There have also been
allegations that Mani Shankar Aiyar colluded with Pakistan and even put out a
contract to eliminate Narendra Modi. But the issue is not finding much traction
as evident from the media coverage of elections. Apart from few news outlets,
most of them are desisting from taking any stand on these allegations and
counter-allegations.
©SantoshChaubey
