WILL NARENDRA MODI REMAIN
NUMERO UNO?
Like it was in 2014 Lok Sabha
polls when it had helped Modi emerge as the only pan-India leader. Manmohan
Singh had faded. Rahul Gandhi was not there. And regional satraps were just
one-state phenomenon. If Modi had any competition from the regional satraps, it
was from within the BJP only.
CAN RAHUL GANDHI BE THERE?
It seems Rahul Gandhi is
honestly now trying to reach there, trying to break the image of a reluctant
politician that he has carried ever since his initiation into the national
politics in the latter half of the last decade. He is looking to break myths
and facts around him with and after his US trip. And he is sounding focused.
DEMONETISATION, GST AND
PETROLEUM PRICES – WHERE THE ECONOMY WILL GO?
It has been mostly negative
developments ever since the demonetisation was announced on November 8 last
year – or if we say negatives far outweigh the positives so far, it will be apt
– at least the goings at the moment say so.
India is a country of small
and middle income people and businesses and demonetisation negatively affected
them, even if we go by the logic of the short term pain – because no one can
vouch for the long term gains – except some studies including the World Bank’s
and Nomura’s projections that have shown faith in an exercise that really
proved unimaginable in scale (read confusion here). GST has only added to this
pain and (confusion).
The Modi government has been
fortunate to reap the windfall benefits of historically low crude oil prices
that have helped it mitigate the huge under recoveries of its oil marketing
companies. In addition, the government has also filled its coffers with lakhs
of crore of Rupees by increasing the excise duty multiple times. It has kept
the oil prices high, like these were during Manmohan Singh’s government. BJP
had made it a big issue then, in spite of the fact that the crude oil prices
were historically high then.
Now Congress and opposition
parties are making it an issue and they are right, at least in public
perception – and this is all what matters in electoral politics – even if the
Modi government has diverted this windfall gain in several infrastructural
projects. That BJP is feeling the heat due to all these issues becomes clear
from the government action on revising GST structure and hinting that it is now
going to pass on the benefits of the low crude oil prices to consumers,
finally.
WHAT WEIGHT THE REGIONAL
SATRAPS WOULD CARRY?
The regional satraps are
still one-state phenomenon. And what goes against them is, the appeal of their
parties is also limited to their respective states – SP and BSP in Uttar
Pradesh – BJD in Odisha – RJD in Bihar – TMC in West Bengal – TRS in Telangana –
Left Front in Kerala – and DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
The most important of them,
who could have rallied other regional satraps behind him and could have posed a
formidable challenge to Modi, Nitish Kumar of JDU in Bihar, is now Modi’s ally,
thanks to politics of yore by RJD.
THE ALWAYS ILLUSIVE THIRD
FRONT?
India has just few short
lived governments third front governments, i.e., of VP Singh, of Chandra
Shekhar, of IK Gujral and of HD Deve Gowda, and the alternative third front
politics has always been a failure. The basic problem has been – all of them
consider themselves to be PM material – so the unity to challenge the main
national parties, i.e., first Congress and now Congress and BJP, has always
been a misnomer. The maze doesn’t look different even this time.
©SantoshChaubey
