As expected, US President
Donald Trump has called for a greater Indian role in Afghanistan. During his
address to the nation on US’ Afghanistan policy review, during which Trump made
several departures from his established stand to withdraw the US from the
war-torn South Asian nation like increasing the number of US troops there and
giving the forces free hand to handle insurgents and not micro-managing then
from the Washington, he clearly said that developing a strategic partnership
with India was a critical part of US’ South Asia strategy.
His policy statement that the
“India, the world’s largest democracy is a key security and economic partner of
the US and it appreciates India’s important contributions to stability in
Afghanistan and wants India to help the US more with Afghanistan, especially in
the area of economic assistance and development” is an extension to a last
month report by the powerful US Senate Armed Services Committee report that
advocated a trilateral arrangement between India, Afghanistan and the US. “The
committee believes that the US needs to recommit to the fight in Afghanistan
and that India, as a major defence partner of the US and a contributor to
regional security, has a critical role to play in this effort”, the report
said.
In fact, a greater Indian
role in Afghanistan where it is already playing a big part in its
reconstruction, will not only give India strategic advantage over its
traditional rivals like Pakistan and China, but would also mean greater access
to the oil and mineral rich Central Asian nations and opportunity for its
industry to gain a larger share in the whole Afghanistan rebuilding business.
And this is coupled with the
fact that the US review on Afghanistan has been extremely harsh on Pakistan
with Trump describing Pakistan again as safe haven for terror groups. He warned
that the US will no longer remain silent about it and pressed that it had to
change immediately. Now that has huge implications for an increased Indian role
in Afghanistan as it has been primarily Pakistan’s objection, a US ally in war
on terror, that sees India’s rise in Afghanistan inimical to its interests. How
frustrated the US is with Pakistan’s double-dealings becomes clear once again
with Trump’s remarks that “the US has been paying Pakistan billions and
billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that
US is fighting.”
INDIA’S GATEWAY TO CENTRAL
ASIA
In July 2015, Prime Minister
Narendra Modi made a historic visit of five Central Asian nations, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan and the main objective was
ensuring India’s future energy security. For India, Afghanistan is the gateway
to Central Asia and a stable Afghanistan with greater access will go a long way
in fulfilling India’s objective.
GREATER LEVERAGE IN DEALING
WITH TERROR GROUPS
A wider presence in
Afghanistan will give India greater leverage in dealing with the terror groups
like Al Qaeda and the Islamic State which are trying to establish their Indian
footprint. There groups are currently using restive regions of Pakistan and
Afghanistan as their gateway opportunity to the Indian Subcontinent.
OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN
INDUSTRY IN AFGHANISTAN’S RECONSTRUCTION
India has played an important
role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction in post Taliban era spending around $2
Billion since 2002 on development projects including its parliament building
and committed another $1 Billion last year. The Indian aid basically has been
in infrastructure development, health services and military equipments like
bullet proof jackets and convoy vehicles. But breaking the tradition of not
giving lethal military equipments in aid, it gave Afghanistan four attack
helicopters last year and is also training its soldiers.
Now with the US policy
change, seeking an enhanced Indian role, coupled with the fact it seeks to
limit the Pakistan’s presence there, Indian companies have an opportunity to
invest more in Afghanistan, especially when the US wants to win the war on
terror, its longest foreign war that is on for the past 16 years, at any cost.
A drastic change in the US policy to crack down on Afghan terrorists with a
free hand to security forces can effectively take care of the terror menace.
How big the opportunity is can be gauged from the fact that the US has spent
over $100 Billion of Afghanistan reconstruction yet it is just far from
producing any tangible outcome and now that Trump has made it clear that there
will be no more ‘blank check’ from the US, the door is wide open.
Also, Afghanistan in future
can emerge as a big push for Make in India initiative for India’s nascent
defence industry as the country would need a sustained military supply to
handle not only its internal terror threats but also to secure its contentious
borders with Pakistan, a terror exporter that has been destabilizing
Afghanistan for the past four decades.
KEEPING PAKISTANI AND CHINESE
DESIGNS IN CHECK
If Pakistan has used
Afghanistan as its junkyard to push terrorists there to maintain its hegemony
and export them to India at the same time, China, too, has been trying to
increase its influence there owing to Afghanistan’s geographical advantage but
so far has failed. A stable Afghanistan, which is fiercely against Pakistan,
can in fact give India strategic advantage by providing a valuable military
base in future, overlooking both Pakistan and China. It is important for India
as reports indicate that China is going to establish its military base in Pakistan,
most probably at the Gwadar port in India’s backyard.
©SantoshChaubey
