US President Donald Trump is going to hold his South Asia review
at his country retreat Camp David today. In attendance will be US
Vice-President Mike Pence, US National Security Advisor HR McMaster and the US
National Security Team.
The US South Asia strategy review basically revolves around
Afghanistan and given the increasing voices in the US to take a regional
approach and the Trump administration's pro-India bent, India is expected to
become an instrumental player in Afghanistan, much to the chagrin on Pakistan
which see India's increasing influence in Afghanistan inimical to its
interests.
That India is on the US radar become clear from the fact
that the all powerful US Senate Armed Services Committee, headed by influential
lawmaker John McCain, has strongly advocated for a strong Indian role in
Afghanistan. "The committee believes that the US needs to recommit to the
fight in Afghanistan and that India, as a major defence partner of the US and a
contributor to regional security, has a critical role to play in this
effort", the committee report last month said realizing India's role in
Afghanistan's future, "The committee believes that timely actions by the
Indian government to fill identified needs in Afghanistan would significantly benefit
the short and long-term security and stability of the region."
Also, the review meeting is going to be held in the backdrop
of pro India and anti Pakistan developments in the US. Trump called Prime
Minister Narendra Modi to wish India on its Independence Day while he didn't
extend the courtesy to Pakistan, its so-called ally in the war on terror.
Then the US first termed Syed Salahuddin a global terrorist
in June and then declared his ISI supported organization Hizbul Mujahideen a
terrorist outfit yesterday. Before it, the US pressure had already forced
Pakistan to house arrest Hafiz Saeed in January this year. And to compound
Pakistan's problems, its latest Country Report on Terrorism has called Pakistan
a haven for India-centric terrorists whom Pakistan patronizes as freedom
fighters of Kashmir.
India has been a trusted friend of Afghanistan for decades
and shares cultural ties with its South Asian neighbour. It has played an
important role in Afghanistan's reconstruction in post Taliban era spending
around $2 Billion since 2002 on development projects in Afghanistan including
its parliament building and committed another $1 Billion last year. The Indian
aid basically has been in infrastructure development, health services and
military equipments like bullet proof jackets and convoy vehicles. It is also
training Afghan soldiers.
India, as a policy, did not provide lethal weaponry to
countries facing internal unrest but with Afghanistan, that policy is changing
now. Last year India gave four MI25 attack helicopters to Afghanistan and a
positive US decision on India's increased role in Afghanistan can see increased
flow of all sorts of Indian military aid to the country, especially when
Afghanistan has been seeking support for long.
We go by the report of the committee, the US, in fact, is
envisaging a fairly comprehensive strategic role for India in Afghanistan. It
talks of trilateral cooperation between India, the US and Afghanistan saying,
"This assistance could include logistical support; joint training;
combined military planning; threat analysis; intelligence, materiel, and
maintenance support for Afghan National Defense and Security Forces for
humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, security assistance, and any other
areas deemed appropriate."
Apart from India's humanitarian role in Afghanistan and its
strengthening ties with the US, what can also work in India's favour is the
fact that the US is miffed with Pakistan's double-dealings.
The world knows Pakistan is the main sponsor of terror in
Afghanistan. The US has made a part of its military assistance to Pakistan
conditional to its handling of Afghan terror groups including the Haqqani
Faction and it withheld the amount for this year and the last year, over $600
million, as it found Pakistan's claims dubious.
Pakistan's situation in the US has seen a new low with the
inauguration of the Trump Administration. The US has always questioned
Pakistan's dubious role in its war against terror and Al Qaeda and the voices
that say that Pakistan be made accountable for billions of US dollars that it
receives in US assistance in the name of being a US ally in the war against
terror have taken the centre-stage of the US policymaking now.
We can say the inflection point in US-Pakistan ties was US
locating Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and deciding to eliminate
him without involving Pakistan. That showed how deep was the US distrust of
Pakistan. But Pakistan continued double-dealing the US even after that, taking
US money to fight terrorists while, at the same time, letting them run amok in
Afghanistan.
So much so that the US and NATO commander in Afghanistan
General John F. Campbell had described the Haqqani Faction as the most capable
threat to the US and coalition forces. Also, Taliban is seeing a new surge.
According to different analyses, it now controls 10 per cent of the Afghan
territory and 30 per cent of its people. Taliban surge is good for Pakistan's
interests in Afghanistan but the US would never allow Taliban to run over
Afghanistan again after spending 17 years fighting Taliban and other terror
forces of the country.
©SantoshChaubey