Based on questionable and
condemnable past credentials of Lalu Yadav-Rabri Devi regime of 15 years when
Bihar had the RJD government - from 1990 to 2005 - termed Jungleraj by Nitish
Kumar - and based on Nitish Kumar's bitter relation with Lalu Yadav – that is
just opportunistically suppressed at the moment (obviously, due to obvious
political compulsions) - because we need to keep this in mind that Lalu had
initially refused projecting Nitish Kumar as the chief-ministerial candidate of
the alliance (read JDU-RJD-Congress-SP, as SP was then in the alliance) - and
Nitish's party has lost the tag of being the largest political party in Bihar
assembly to Lalu's RJD - a development that is ominous to Nitish's style of
politics - again based on the circumstances so far:
The JDU-RJD-Congress government would run smoothly: Now, this is
the least likely scenario. But if it happens, it will be smoothest thing Bihar’s
electorate can expect – provided Nitish Kumar finds himself free to run the
government and Lalu, who cannot contest polls and cannot take any political
office, as he is a convict in the fodder scam, will put his energy more in his
and his family’s political revival.
It will become the RJD-JDU-Congress combine: Lalu, being the
numero-uno of RJD may exact his price, making Nitish Kumar a follower and not a
trendsetter. After all, if Lalu walks out, Nitish’s government will collapse –
if Nitish doesn’t agree to compromise.
Nitish is most likely to have his
deputy from RJD or from Lalu’s family and important ministers as well. Lalu
will weigh heavily in governance decisions and Nitish will face trouble in
taking decisions freely, like he has been taking so far, and in reining in the
bad elements associated with RJD, the senior partner in the government.
In this case, Bihar can soon
expect another round of assembly polls – if any one of the parties walks out of
the alliance – again based on their own reasoning – that would, in turn, be
based on their political revival of the past.
Nitish can split RJD: Now it is a known fact that RJD has no face
but Lalu Yadav. His both sons are novice and his daughter Misa has no political
experience. As Lalu cannot take any political position, it would be best for
him to stick to the routine and let Nitish do his work. Otherwise, Nitish can
easily split RJD to get the numbers to run his government, in case his ties with
his Lalu sour. A party with mass no leader than Lalu, who is barred from taking
office, would be an easy target to lure its members – in the name of accessibility
to the power corridors.
Or it can be a JDU-BJP combine again: We all know the cliché of
Indian politics – that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics – and
going by the account of the long years of JDU-BJP alliance, there is no reason
to think these parties cannot come together again – especially when Nitish
would feel suffocated to run the government of JDU-RJD combine.
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey - http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/