Reports say Delhi is to get a new
government. With 3 BJP members of the Delhi legislative assembly becoming the
members of the parliament, the sitting MLA strength of the House is now 67. It
means, to form the government, a simple majority of 34 MLAs is needed now.
The present combined strength of
BJP and its ally SAD is 29 (28+1) and AAP is at 27. BJP needs 5 MLAs and AAP
needs 7 MLAs to reach the threshold.
The BJP prospects: That makes BJP’s work easier. BJP can easily
scout for the lone independent MLA and the AAP rebel Vinod Kumar Binny. That
reduces its need to 3 more MLAs.
The options are the breakaway
factions from Congress or AAP.
Congress has 8 MLAs, 4 of which
are Muslims. They, with the Delhi Congress chief Arvinder Singh Lovely, will
not go for BJP. Even then, the 3 other MLAs can split up to support BJP as that
would be according to the provision of the anti-defection law requiring at
least one-third of the members of a political party in a House to split up to
form a new entity.
That would serve the BJP purpose
but the majority would be razor-thin and BJP would like to go for the greener
option, splitting the Aam Aadmi Party. It is being reported that many AAP MLAs
are in touch with the BJP leadership and negotiations are on.
Now, no one wants elections in
Delhi (if we talk of the politicians). And with depleted popularity and
credibility crisis owing to being the deserters and being a major factor behind
Delhi’s ongoing power crisis, most of the AAP MLAs, who rode on the 2011 anti-corruption
movement and sky-high anti-incumbency ‘wave’ to win (otherwise most of them
would not have won), are ‘rightly’ wary that they are not going to win again,
because no ‘wave’ would be there next time. The credibility crisis for AAP is
real and is here to stay (irrespective of the increased vote share in Delhi in
the Lok Sabha polls as the Indian capital city was not hit by its worst power
and water crisis, at least in this decade).
In that case, most of the
first-timers (and that can be their only chance to sit in the Delhi assembly)
would never prefer to go for re-election so soon without experiencing the true
test of power (and the associated luxuries of life), that they could, during
the first brief stint with the Delhi Secretariat earlier this year. After all,
the air around the austere and upright AAP leaders has fizzled out.
And they are the ‘willing’
targets the BJP would love to manage and co-opt and their count will be an
additional advantage. Being 27 members, at least 9 MLAs need to form the
splitting faction that would give BJP a smooth sail in the House in terms of
the number-game (28+1+1+1+9=40). And 9 is just the theoretical count. There may
be more.
Also, such ‘willing’ MLAs will
not be a headache for BJP even if they are not given the ministerial berths.
Being the first-timers, they would stay comfortable ‘even’ with the legislative
perks.
Related post:
THE NEXT DELHI
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey - http://severallyalone.blogspot.com
