With a summer of mounting power
crisis, the rush to form the next government in Delhi is in news again. AAP and
BJP both are reported to be engaged in efforts.
(Irrespective of the claims, counterclaims, deliberate leaks, denials,
and irrespective of the immediate past, and based much on the recent political
past, and irrespective of the compulsions of the political ideologies, that
has, comfortably, never been the case in the ‘contemporary’ Indian politics.)
AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) negotiating
with Congress and BJP (Bhartiya Janata Party) working on ‘rebel AAP MLAs’
options – though such reports and claims have been dismissed by BJP, AAP and
Congress – the developments are expected to give Delhi the next ‘elected’ government.
With 3 BJP members of the Delhi
legislative assembly becoming the members of the parliament, the sitting MLA
strength of the House is now 67. It means, to form the government, a simple
majority of 34 MLAs is needed now.
The present combined strength of
BJP and its ally SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal) is 29 (28+1) and AAP is at 27. BJP
needs 5 MLAs and AAP needs 7 MLAs to reach the threshold.
THE BJP PROSPECTS
That makes BJP’s work easier. BJP
can easily scout for the lone independent MLA and the AAP rebel Vinod Kumar
Binny. That reduces its need to 3 more MLAs.
The options are the breakaway
factions from Congress or AAP.
Congress has 8 MLAs, 4 of which
are Muslims. They, with the Delhi Congress chief Arvinder Singh Lovely, will
not go for BJP. Even then, the 3 other MLAs can split up to support BJP as that
would be according to the provision of the anti-defection law requiring at
least one-third of the members of a political party in a House to split up to
form a new entity.
That would serve the BJP purpose
but the majority would be razor-thin and BJP would like to go for the greener
option, splitting the Aam Aadmi Party. It is being reported that many AAP MLAs
are in touch with the BJP leadership and negotiations are on.
Now, no one wants elections in
Delhi (if we talk of the politicians). And with depleted popularity and
credibility crisis owing to being the deserters and being a major factor behind
Delhi’s ongoing power crisis, most of the AAP MLAs, who rode on the 2011 anti-corruption
movement and sky-high anti-incumbency ‘wave’ to win (otherwise most of them
would not have won), are ‘rightly’ wary that they are not going to win again,
because no ‘wave’ would be there next time. The credibility crisis for AAP is
real and is here to stay (irrespective of the increased vote share in Delhi in
the Lok Sabha polls as the Indian capital city was not hit by its worst power
and water crisis, at least in this decade).
In that case, most of the
first-timers (and that can be their only chance to sit in the Delhi assembly)
would never prefer to go for re-election so soon without experiencing the true
test of power (and the associated luxuries of life), that they could, during
the first brief stint with the Delhi Secretariat earlier this year. After all,
the air around the austere and upright AAP leaders has fizzled out.
And they are the ‘willing’
targets the BJP would love to manage and co-opt and their count will be an
additional advantage. Being 27 members, at least 9 MLAs need to form the
splitting faction that would give BJP a smooth sail in the House in terms of
the number-game (28+1+1+1+9=40). And 9 is just the theoretical count. There may
be more.
Also, such ‘willing’ MLAs will
not be a headache for BJP even if they are not given the ministerial berths.
Being the first-timers, they would stay comfortable ‘even’ with the legislative
perks.
THE AAP PROSPECTS
Given the count of 27, AAP, too,
like BJP’s 29 MLAs, has the chances. The only catch is, AAP does not have the
luxury of putting efforts for more than ‘one easily available options’.
AAP needs 7 MLAs and even in that
case it would be just a razor-thin simple majority.
AAP can look for Congress, the
lone independent MLA and the lone Janata Dal (United) MLA. They all make for a
combined strength of 37 (27+8+1+1).
If this happens, then AAP can
expect to manage well for the remaining tenure, provided it meets the
‘criteria’.
And what can be the elements of
the ‘criteria’? AAP will have to accommodate each and every demand of the
‘supporting’ MLAs. Here, the problem would not be with the Congress party as it
will support from outside. But the 2 other MLAs would extract a heavy price.
But the big question before the
stage to ‘meet the elements of the criteria laid’ arrives is whether the
Congress party will come forward to support AAP.
There are reports talking of
meetings and possible ‘deal’ between AAP and Congress with each vehemently
denied by both. But even Congress needs time to prepare for the lost ground in
Delhi before it goes to the polls. After the historically low tally in the recently
held Lok Sabha elections, there are real chances that an election held now may
worsen its situation even further that will further weaken its revival
prospects.
So, even if Congress supporting
AAP to form the government again after the failed previous experiment may look
like a remote possibility as of now, we should not be surprised if some last
minute deal could be worked out.
In the present circumstances,
Congress has not much to lose politically. Any performing government in Delhi
would work anti to its prospects but a performing BJP government would be much
more harmful.
In fact, a performing AAP
government, running with the ‘crucial and guided’ support of Congress would be
the logical option for the Delhi politics of the grand old party of India.
The party will have to bear the
opportunity cost of giving AAP another chance to prove its ‘worthiness’ in
order to gain time to act further, to act better.
That is the only chance the Aam
Aadmi Party has to form the government in Delhi.