Personality wave in electoral
battles basically follows personality cult. To be a personality cult there,
there need to be a large scale uniform acceptability across a large
geographical and sociological cross section of the poll-bound area.
If we follow this simple logic of
common sense, we can easily say there was no Modi-wave in the recently
concluded assembly polls in Delhi ,
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Better than expected results in
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh help the proponents of the Modi-wave theories but then
Chhattisgarh and Delhi results, where BJP could hardly win in one and could
emerge as the largest party but short of majority in other, defy their every
logic.
It is true Narendra Modi did
positively add to the BJP vote-share in these assembly polls but it was not a
wave, it was the Modi-factor in play.
And there is a clear and visible distance,
from Modi-factor to Modi-wave, to be travelled.
Personality waves in electoral
events, if is there is really a personality wave, are very strong, strong
enough to dwarf every other factor.
Had there been a Modi-wave, we
would not have such a close fight in Chhattisgarh; we would not have a hung
assembly in Delhi .
Had there been a Modi-wave, it
could have easily countered and negated the sympathy wave that helped Congress
in Bastar constituencies in Chhattisgarh after its top state leaders were
killed in a Naxal attack there. 8 out of 12 assembly seats falling in that area
went to the Congress party.
Had it been for a Modi-wave, we
would not have a hung assembly outcome in Delhi .
It could have easily replaced the Anna and AAP factor in being the primary
claimants exploiting the huge anti-incumbency against the Congress-led
governments, at Union and at State levels.
But that did not happen.
To dwarf such known factors and some unpredictable
factors like the sympathy votes in Bastar, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls,
Modi’s popularity needs to travel this distance, it there has to be a Modi-wave
by the next April-May when the voters go out to vote to elect the next Union
Government of India.
But in the prevailing political
circumstances, even a Narendra Modi factor would be more than enough for the
BJP to secure around 200 seats, a threshold that the party needs in order to
command political allies to cross the 272 mark to prove majority in the House,
if the BJP strategists could successfully align the Modi-factor along the huge nation-wide
anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA government.
And so what is this Modi-factor.
It is many sub-factors that make Narendra Modi the tallest political leader of
the present political lot; that make Narendra Modi the most popular political
leader in the country literally dwarfing all others; that make Narendra Modi an
icon of development politics; that make Narendra Modi an experimenter and
promoter of the identity-politics; factors that make Narendra Modi the absolute
factor of the ‘politics of polarisation’ in India.
There are in-built positives and
negatives with these Modi sub-factors. How these sub-factors are played out by BJP
is going to the shape the effectiveness of the Modi-factor in the upcoming
general elections; is going to write the equations for the party.
Yes, if there comes around a
political scenario of BJP getting the absolute majority on its own, then we can
safely call it’s a Modi-wave where positives and negatives don’t matter; where
the cult of the personality becomes a phenomenon sweeping the mindsets.
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey - http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/
