What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General
Elections campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this
November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram,
being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political
parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political
calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).
Look beyond Rahul Gandhi – Look inside
– Though complete redemption impossible in the time available but, at least,
some ground can be saved, some humiliation can be averted:
It
was ignorance and arrogance both that led the Congress party, the grand old
party of India, to bite the dust, to go down so
miserably.
Arrogance
has been trademark of Congress rule and whenever they continue in government
for more than one term, we see its convoluted form on display. First, the
Manmohan Singh led UPA government messed up with the economy during the first
three years of its second term. Then, in order to win the elections riding on
easy money, they pushed schemes to pump easy money into the lives of millions
of its targeted voters (at the cost of others who have been mostly silent till
now – the middle-class bearing the brunt of everyday corruption and price rise –
that was until now).
This
has been a tried and verified route to pull votes the Congress party
strategists believe. They have been doing this at the cost of the middle-class
votes. Also, they have been attracting the minority votes significantly. Their
equations have been to rely on votebanks coming from the bottom of the human
pyramid as well as from the minorities.
But
things are changing now. The middle class is emerging as a major segment in
Indian electoral politics. This middle-class is aware of its rights and votes
accordingly. The huge youth base of India,
across the caste, class and religion lines, that
votes on ‘issue-based politics’ comes from this class. To add to it, there are
other significant claimants of minority voters now in the league as well.
In
all this, the Congress party could not understand or gauge the public sentiment
on issues of price rise and corruption. Political corruption in India has become a global talking point and
Manmohan Singh’s government is seen as the most corrupt of the governments in
the office.
And
the price rise – it is affecting all, the targeted votebank of Congress at the
bottom of the pyramid, the minorities, as well as the ignored middle-class.
By
the time, the Congress party strategists realized the deteriorating ground for
them, it was too late. The Rahul Gandhi elevation was a desperate effort to
reclaim the lost ground. In 2013, Congress could win just one big state,
Karnataka. But linking this to Rahul Gandhi factor, if they thought so, was
again a mistake. Congress didn’t win in Karnataka but BJP lost it.
The
other approach that the Congress party strategists saw to corner votes - the
populist schemes – direct cash transfer for subsidies and the food security
have failed to leave any impact so far and there is very little time left in
the Lok Sabha polls.
The
Rahul Gandhi factor and the ‘easy money for easy votes’ experiments, both have
failed to help Congress.
In
2009, the situation was different. UPA had performed well in its first term.
Then there were populist schemes like the farm debt waiver riding on a successful
government and a faceless opposition. Also, Narendra Modi was not a popular
leader of national stature then.
It’s
different now. UPA has failed on almost every front in its second term. Results
of the assembly polls just concluded tell us the populist schemes did not add
to the votebank. In fact it was slipped away considerably as the huge losses in
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi (both Congress ruled till the
elections) show us. And Narendra Modi is a much taller leader of national
acceptance now. No other political leader comes anywhere near to him in
popularity.
And
midst all this, Rahul Gandhi is failing, again and again. The Rahul Gandhi
factor has become more of a hot air than substance. Rahul does campaign
extensively but his words are still fatigued by the old symptoms of his politics
– no connect, no context, no modulation, repetitions, alienated words and
poorly researched customization.
He
is failing to establish the connect that is needed to align the voters. And remember,
Rahul Gandhi is the main campaigner for the Congress party.
Though
it cannot save the day in the prevailing circumstances, a Congress party relying
heavily on Rahul Gandhi needs to introspect if it has to save itself from the
ignominy of political marginalization in the next Lok Sabha polls.
It
needs to realign its campaign on the lines of fighting the Lok Sabha polls in a
sporting spirit, beyond character assassinations. It needs to act humbly and
sound so while approaching the voters. Rahul Gandhi must not make the voters
vote for hours in his rallies. The Congress party strategists must look beyond
the trio of Sonia-Rahul-Manmohan. Their leaders must not make insensitive
comments on price rise and corruption.
And
they must look utmost sincere, sensible and honest in dealing with price rise
and corruption. It is difficult for them to do because it has been the work
culture and culture of the Congress party.
They
have two opportunities to set the precedent to base their campaigning for the
Lok Sabha polls – the JPC report on 2G Spectrum Scam and Anna Hazare’s renewed
agitation for the Lokpal Bill.
Can
they do it this time? Going by the government’s attitude on the 2G scam report,
it doesn’t look so.
Watch
to see an interesting trend analysis unveiling!
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey - http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/
