What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General Elections
campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this
November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram,
being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political
parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political
calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).
BJP’s Modi-wave rant is going to be under the impending
influence of the reality: The reality is imminent and the BJP strategists should read it rather
than trying tagging along to getting aligned with the all powerful prime
ministerial nominee of BJP and NDA. They need to read the writing on the wall
carefully because there are in-built elements of confusion.
Confusions that will lead to complacency and hence to the
possibilities of debacle in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls!
Before the elections, till the day of the counting, BJP
was being projected to be the clear winner in all the four important states
where elections were being held, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and
Chhattisgarh, in the polls being seen as the semifinal, the immediately
preceding electorally important event before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The talks of the Modi-wave were all around, being
discussed, being dismissed.
So, it was more of a test of the Modi-wave it could be
said. Also, it was going to give an opportunity to test the waters for the
design of BJP’s election campaigning for the upcoming general elections.
Only if they read into it! Only if they are reading
further into it!
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan may confuse but Delhi, Chhattisgarh should
act as eye openers.
While BJP has performed exceedingly well beating
expectations in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, a point that can be raised in
favour of a Modi-wave, the close contest in Chhattisgarh and not getting
majority in Delhi should be enough to rebut any such point.
Though BJP has won this round of electoral politics, it
needs to remain beware of the complacency factor.
True, Narendra Modi is a factor adding positively to the
BJP prospects, but he is yet to become a wave, if he becomes a personality wave
at all, something that remains cryptic as of now.
Had there been a Modi-wave, we would not have such a close
fight in Chhattisgarh; we would not have a hung assembly in Delhi.
Personality waves in electoral events, if is there is
really a personality wave, are very strong, strong enough to dwarf every other
factor.
Had there been a Modi-wave, it could have easily countered
and negated the sympathy wave that helped Congress in Bastar constituencies in
Chhattisgarh after its top state leaders were killed in a Naxal attack there. 8
out of 12 assembly seats falling in that area went to the Congress party.
Had it been for a Modi-wave, we would not have a hung
assembly outcome in Delhi.
It could have easily replaced the Anna and AAP factor in being the primary
claimants exploiting the huge anti-incumbency against the Congress-led
governments, at Union and at State levels.
But that did not happen.
This realization is important for BJP if the party has to
capitalize on the deepening anti-Congress sentiments across the nation. Modi’s
popularity across the country (and not Modi-wave) would certainly help the
party to gain deeper and wider.
True, there are factors that can make it a Modi-wave by
the time we enter the final round of the campaigning for the 2014 General
Elections, but they need this realization and the subsequent synergizing efforts
to make them dominating at play.
Watch to see an interesting trend analysis unveiling!