What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General
Elections campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this
November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram,
being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political
parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political
calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).
or no Delhi –
Aam Aadmi Party needs to play it down to play it longer:
Yes, AAP now
needs a special mention here. Though just a regional party at the moment with just
one electoral performance in Delhi in its bag,
it has stirred the established notions of the current political establishment
Barring few, almost everyone was dismissive of the new outfit until the results
came on December 8. They are now expressing their desire to learn from ‘how AAP
what a surprisingly pleasant entry it has been. A voice to the suppressed and
expressed desire of political change in India!
Delhi may not
have a government for the next six months with President Rule in place after
the hung-assembly verdict. As the Lok Sabha polls are scheduled by April-May,
holding another assembly election in Delhi
should not be an issue. In fact, it should be seen as a welcome opportunity.
AAP needs to
focus on consolidating its Delhi gains and
should design its campaign in a way so as to not to waste its efforts and
energy in widening its base out of Delhi
base - for any political outfit, that is important. But AAP needs to play it
differently. It needs to play down its Delhi
feat until it gets comfortably in the office and starts running the show of
governance comfortably as well.
It needs to prove it first in the
office. Expanding from there would be the next logical step. It needs to see it
does not become another AGP (Asom Gana Parishad).
needs considerable resources in terms of time and finance availability. Also,
demography of Delhi that made AAP the real
winner of the Delhi polls is not there in the small
town and hinterlands of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar or Maharashtra
or any other state of the country. Also, Arvind Kejriwal is not JP. Even Anna
Hazare could not be.
So, it is
important for the party to set its priorities right to move further, to expand its
political footprint, to design a campaign for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls (and
possibly for the Delhi
With Delhi as mainstay for its Lok Sabha election campaigning
(and possibly for assembly seats in case of repoll), its campaign should focus
on demographic pockets of the country with similarities to Delhi to expand its base.
is going to be the urban centres first. It is going to be the people at the
bottom of the pyramid, the middle-class and the youth of urban areas who are
going to be in dialogue with AAP first. Once that happens across the urban
pockets of the country, taking it to the small town and rural areas will
Watch to see
an interesting trend analysis unveiling!
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey - http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/