Previous write-ups in the series “RUSSIA WITHOUT PUTIN!” – RUSSIAN BLOGGERS ROCK – ARAB
SPRING IS FLOWING:
http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/2011/12/russia-without-putin-russian-bloggers.html
http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/2011/12/russia-without-putin-russian-bloggers_20.html
Continued from:
http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/2011/12/shaky-democratic-experiment-russia.html
http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/2011/12/russia-without-putin-russian-bloggers.html
http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/2011/12/russia-without-putin-russian-bloggers_20.html
Continued from:
http://severallyalone.blogspot.com/2011/12/shaky-democratic-experiment-russia.html
Would
Russia be another Iran for the ordinary Russians?
“By
nearly every indicator, Russians are embracing social and digital media in ways
deeper and more impactful than most other countries around the world,” a
Mashable post this June said. Though the report was about linking marketing
insights to the emerging social media trends in Russia, it tells about the
deeper penetration of the social media in Russian life. Facebook was launched
in Russia in January 2010 and it grew by 376 per cent in first four months. The
report emphatically says, “The millions of 18 to 27-year-olds now poised to
drive the next generation of social and economic change in Russia are setting
aside previously held perceptions about global engagement and are tweeting,
blogging, liking, posting and emailing through a myriad of online social
communities.”
Globally,
social networking time spend is now 19% of the total online time-spend and
Russia is in top 5 countries registering fast paced growth in online social
networking, say a recent comScore report. With a median age of 38.7 years and an
industrial economy in unstable phase, the social networking usage on different
social media platforms can easily be diverted to target the angst against the
political events in the country and it may happen spontaneously in an
interconnected world where the dots are the digital spots hard to restrict.
Internet has done thing, converting the whole world into a global information
village and all you need is the access spots, something that is well supplied
in Russia. Okay, some analysts and Russia watchers say the crowd that gathered
for protests post December 4 elections was not there for political upheaval.
These analysts saw it another extension of their social media activity by the
younger or politically insensitive lot. But they forget the issue in the backdrop.
Allegations of a rigged election and a call by a popular blogger (and not a
political figure) bring thousands on the streets. That blogger is arrested and
it leads to further protests mobilizing tens of thousands. The 15 days of
prison make the popular blogger a key political figure in Russia. A recent
Financial Times report places Aleksei Navalny at the top in its list of ’25
Russians to watch’. On December 21, Navalny completed his prison term and
walked out.
Though
Navalny’s character make is that of a mysterious person with ultra-nationalist
and Fascist overtures, what draws Russians to him and especially the working
middle-age population is his consistently confident challenge to the
authorities. Now he is out and raring to go. Now he is immensely popular. Now
he is strategic asset for political analysts, journalists and Russia watchers.
Now he is considered one of the most potential threats for Putin’s iron grip on
Russia. And he realizes it. He realizes the opportunity that is before him. Putin
needs to do something dramatic with Russian political system reforms unlike his
misplaced raw sense of humour? Has he learnt his lessons?
Russia’s
Legislature is far weaker than the Executive. President wields considerable
power and appoints the Prime Minister and other higher state officials with
Duma approval. United Russia is in majority there. And United Russia is
synonymous with Putin. The extent of Putin’s power can be gauged from the fact
that he remains the central political figure even as the Prime Minister and
dictate the terms to Medvedev. Very shrewdly he didn’t allow any possible
upshot to Medvedev which could have prompted the later to aspire for greater
political role in Russia. The reported ‘Putin-Medvedev 2012 swap deal’ is the
telling truth.
Recent
protests tell Russians have started getting fed up of it. Tens of thousands
could be tens of millions if not addressed. But by the casual attitude adopted
by Putin and Medvedev in their television interviews, it seems the minority
view may see its day to become a majority opinion. What best proposed
(according to Putin) was a system of indirect selection of governors of
provinces. Instead of being nominated by the President, there may be an
alternative system where governors will be elected from a list finalized by the
Kremlin. Some other suggested reforms were on this line only. What crap! Anyone
can see the rubbish in Putin’s logics. A report said this ‘high pitched reform
rhetoric’ can easily find its parallel in Iran’s political system. If Putin
intends to bring political reforms like this with sole aim of making his grip
on Russia even stronger, it’s horrific. Add to it the history of election
rigging in the short history of democracy in Russia and one can easily see the
political mess Russia is in. It is not just with this election. Even 2007
elections were reported to be not free. A US report quotes the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Office of Democratic Institutions
and Human Rights. Parliamentarians of the OSCE and the Council of Europe who
observed the elections concluded that they were "not fair and failed to
meet many OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards for democratic
elections." They noted that the elections took place in an atmosphere which
seriously limited political competition. Frequent abuses of administrative
resources, media coverage strongly in favor of United Russia, and the revised
election code combined to hinder political pluralism.
Would
Russians go for a political system like Iran?
Certainly
they would not and the recent protests might be the beginning of a whole new
wave. Let’s see what happens on December 24 protest calls. The difference from
2007 is the presence of the Internet. It has become the main tool of expression
for millions of Russians. Tunisia saw the Facebook revolution. Egypt saw the
successful ‘Facebook April 6 Movement. Russia has begun with successful
‘Facebook’ rallies. Russian government being worried of it is the testimony to
the growing influence of the social media in Europe’s largest Internet user in
shaping opinion of the Russian population. An AFP report quotes Russia's
Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev in an interview with Argumenty i Fakty
newspaper saying, "We cannot ignore the use of the internet by criminals
and terrorist groups." Patrushev says Internet usage in Russia needs to be
regulated like it is done in China. A
Reuters reports says, “Russia's top social networking site VKontakte defiantly
rejected a request by the Federal Security Service to block opposition groups
from using it to organize street protests accusing the authorities of rigging
the election.” Rights activist Lev Ponomaryov told the Interfax, “It's very
significant that such proposals are being voiced after the mass rally in Moscow
and ahead of another protest planned for December 24." He further said
that restrictions on Internet freedom would provoke additional tensions in
society. According to an AFP report, almost a quarter of Russians get most of
their news from Internet and most of this is uncensored. The report says,
“Putin famously dismissed the Internet last year as "50 percent
pornography", but the Russian-language sector is more and more dictating
the news agenda despite the state domination of print and television media.”
Would
Putin think on the similar lines even now given the fact that the increasing
wave of ground activity based on online campaigns prompted the United Russia
officials to use the same media, Internet, to counter the upsurge of opinion?
Instead expect some cracking down given the recent trend. The Reuters report
says, “In recent days, mass cyber attacks crippled the country's top blogging
platform LiveJournal and the sites of liberal media outfits which reported on
campaign violations.” “Now the connection between hackers and state government
activity seems to be more clear," said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian
intelligence expert from Agentura.ru, which tracks Russia's special services.
"Clearly we now see panic. They have no strategy for how to deal with
Facebook," he said.
It
is already people vs. the state now. Much depends on who gains what, whether
the government unleashes a run to crush the people’s mood or the
anti-government factions swell up to form an effective deterrent. Much is on the
stake. "Just using the Internet, without having access to other media,
neither television nor print, Navalny carried out an intervention with a
slogan," AFP quoted Alexander Morozov, a political analyst and director of
the Moscow Centre of Media Studies before the December 4 parliamentary
elections. Navalny is to address the December 24 rally on Moscow's Sakharov
Avenue and he has made his intentions clear. He said in a post-release
interview on December 24, "I don't think Putin's regime of absolute power,
which prevails in this country, will last for more than two years - that's the
maximum."
Let’s
wait for the evening of December 24.
