We had a stable government at the centre then. Figures decided to follow the line. The toothless demon, that inflation figures had become by then, started to fall down. We thought to breathe easy. But lo. The conundrum of figures started deceiving them too this time. The figures representing inflation and hence prices started coming down and settled as negative numerals for quite a period of time while the prices actually started the journey to skyrocket. Anything and everything is in between. Now the negative numeral value is gone and the trend has regained its upward spiral again and it is only expected to add to the price rise.
So prices will go up no matter where that inflation figure remains. Why all this hype and hoopla around figures then. Why such figures have become sole barometers of driving public sentiments, if not on ground but on perception.
True, inflation figure is not the only decisive factor. There are other indices too that affect and interchange the dimensions of statistical calculations and so the economic impulse of you and me. But they are not in the domain of the Indian voter of the street. He would never be able to find time to understand intricacies of WPI and CPI and inflationary reincarnations. Put aside the government’s move to measure Inflation figures now on monthly rather than on weekly basis. Food Inflation touched the decade high of 20% during the week ended Dec 6. He understands this only that it portends an omen, that surviving is going to be more burning, the scorch is continued unabated.
Statistically, the problems of an Indian has exaggerated manifold and are still increasing. Add it to the spectacle of austerity. Since 2006, inflation rate@consumer prices have seen the upward spiral stepping up from 4.2 to 5.3 to 6.4 to 8.3. 2010 is going to add to it. Another anomaly. Figures when they were favourable could not give any relief as in case of negative inflation figures. But when they were not favourable, they dragged the whole inflationary regime to stupendous highs year-on-year basis and mind you, the prices have escalated even during the high recession times before onset of doomed prediction of bad monsoon. Erratic monsoon just added to it. Some more figures. Agricultural production is likely to go down by 2% this year up ahead from the last year negative growth of 1.6%. The curry is brewing.
At one hand, income didn’t get the parallel growth as the prices; consumption bore the brunt if IIPs are any indication. So the consumption was down. Production was down. Jobs were going, still not coming handsomely. Salaries were being reduced. Employees were being threatened. Common Indian was being given lessons in austerity. Common Indian was advised to bear it this time. Delhi CM very emphatically says after three consecutive wins that expect and be prepared for price rises. Everything is getting dear, from drinking water to electricity to taking a walk on the street.
The politics of figures is manipulative enough to astound anyone. Much debates of controversial nature of China growth story emanate from ‘how this bulky country twists and turns statistical regime of its economy’. We Indians are sometimes sold a dream by some experts and analysts that Indian will overtake China as China would fall by its own weight of economic manipulations.
But is this common to China only?
No, it’s pandemic in nature. A pandemic where, most of the time, we are not aware of what the signs are telling us!
Changing regimes of statistical parameters can be found anywhere. It’s like fudging at an individual level if to put words in a crude and honest way. We may or may not do it. Ramifications are different. So some Army officials in India can fudge and become parties in a land scam; so a Raju can manipulate figures to the tune of thousand of crores; so China can remain vehemently adamant about its currency; so US and European banking system can send the world into spins of recession with inflated balance sheets. Sometimes reasons are justified as the complex web of economy needs it. There are times and ample of them when such exercises are done in order to look healthy, sound correct, win trust, and instill confidence.
But then isn’t it more about being politically correct? Le’s see it.
