The 25th round of population projections by the United
Nations has delayed its earlier estimates by two years when India's population
is likely to surpass China's. According to the "World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision" released by the Population Division of the
United Nations' Department of Economic and Social Affairs, India is likely to
surpass China's population in 2024 while in its 24th round projections,
released in 2015, the UN had estimated 2022 to be the year when India's
population could surpass China's. In its 2013 estimates, the UN had projected
India's population to overtake China's in 2028.
According to the report, China with 1.41 billion and India
with 1.34 billion people, accounting for 19 per cent and 18 per cent of the
global population, remain two most populous countries and adds that in "in
roughly seven years, or around 2024, the population of India is expected to
surpass that of China." Nigeria, that is growing most rapidly among the
ten largest countries and is currently the world's seventh largest, will
surpass the US to become the world's third most populous country in the world
shortly before 2050.
Also, while China, that is geographically three times larger
than us with an economy of $11 trillion that is five times of India's $2.1
trillion, is slowing down, India's population is expected to be the fastest
growing among the countries which will account for half of the world's
population growth between 2017 to 2015. The countries in decreasing order of
their expected contribution to the global population growth are India, Nigeria,
the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic
of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda and Indonesia.
The world's total population is projected to reach 8.6
billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100 from its current
7.6 billion. The report says "83 million people are added to the world’s
population every year and the upward trend in population size is expected to
continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline."
The report says in 2014 both countries will have roughly
1.44 billion people. While India's population will continue to grow for decades
after it, touching 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.66 billion in 2050, China's
population is expected to register a slow decline after remaining stable till
2030s.
In May this year, a Chinese experts claimed that India's
population had already surpassed China's. Yi Fuxiang, a US based Chinese
scientist, came out with his numbers arguing that China's real population was 1.29
billion in 2016 and not 1.38 billion as estimated by China and India had
surpassed China with 1.33 billion people quoting the UN figures. He had arrived
at his findings after factoring in information and data on family planning
policies, birth rate and hospital and school statistics. Though widely
reported, his claims were met with scepticism and the UN report now makes it
clear that China's still more populous than us, even if only for seven more
years.
©SantoshChaubey