The Congress may have found a
way to draw some solace from the assembly election verdicts announced yesterday
which were like a massive tsunami of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s
electoral victory. After yet another round of electoral humiliation, the grand
old party of India is trying to put up a brave face by highlighting the fact
that it won three of the five states where polls were held. The party has
scored an impressive victory in Punjab and has emerged as the largest party in
Goa and Manipur.
It says while it lost one
state in Uttarakhand, it won one in Punjab, has dethroned the BJP in Goa and is
looking to retain Manipur after it emerged as the largest party by winning 26
of the 60 assembly seats on offer. But the BJP has outdone the Congress even
here, in staking claims to form the governments in Goa and Manipur.
When we go beyond these mere
claims to look for elements to substantiate them, we found them as empty claims
which are nothing lame attempts to hide behind data manipulation, both in terms
of numbers of states that the party claims to win and the geographical extent and
population under its rule in the country.
THE PARTY MAY END UP WITH
JUST ONE STATE
The Congress party has won a
clear and absolute majority in Punjab with 77 seats in the 117-member strong
Punjab assembly and 38.5% vote share and is going to form the government there
under Captain Amarinder Singh.
But that is not the case with
Goa and Manipur where Amit Shah, the BJP president, had claimed yeaterday that
his party would form the government. Though the Congress has emerged as the
largest party in both states, it is still short of majority with hung verdicts
in both states. And the developments so far say that both of these states may
actually end up with the BJP.
GOA
While the Congress is still
contemplating its moves, the BJP has met the Goa Governor to stake its claim to
form the government in the state. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar will resign
from the union cabinet to become Goa's chief minister again. He had resigned
from the position in November 2014 to join Narendra Modi's union cabinet.
The BJP, the incumbents in
the state, have won 13 assembly seats this time, four less than Congress' 17.
To prove majority in the 40-member Goa House, support of 21 members are needed.
Congress needs four MLAs to scale the gap while the BJP needs eight. And it
seems the BJP has arranged its eight before the Congress could garner support
of four MLAs.
The BJP claims to have
support of 22 MLAs including three MLAs each of the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak
Party (MGP) and the Goa Forward Party (GFP) and three independents. That the
Congress has resigned to its fate becomes clear from the development where its Goa
in-charge Digvijay Singh, who was claiming to form the government yesterday, was
quoted saying today that the Congress was ready to sit in Opposition if the BJP
had the numbers.
MANIPUR
Himanta Biswa Sarma, senior
BJP leader and Assam minister just tweeted to inform us that the BJP is going
to stake claim to form the government.
@himantabiswa
Meeting her Excellency Guv of
#Manipur Smt Najma Heptullah ji to stake claim to form a @BJP4India led Govt in
state. #MissionAccomplished
In the 60-member strong
Manipur legislative assembly, the ruling Congress party has won 28 seats while
the BJP is trailing at the second position with 21 seats. A simple house
majority needs support of 31 MLAs.
Smaller parties like the Naga
People's Front (NPF) has won four seats, National People's Party (NPP) has won another
four seats and Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJP) has won one seat. All these are NDA
constituents and have extended their support to the BJP in Manipur. The BJP is
also claiming support of the lone independent MLA. That takes the tally of the
BJP and its allies to 31, crossing the halfway majority mark in the Manipur
assembly. Then there are reports that the lone All India Trinamool Congress
(AITC) MLA is also supporting the BJP alliance and a Congress MLA has defected
to the BJP camp.
So, in effect, based on the
developments so far, the Congress has won just one states, i.e., Punjab, while
losing two, i.e., Manipur and Uttarakhand.
SHRINKING AREA OF
INFLUENCE
And even if we go by the
Congress' claim that it won three states, it will still add nothing significant
to the spread of its influence - geographically as well as in terms of the
human headcount. The Congress party has effectively lost the electoral space to
act as a national alternative to the BJP.
The BJP and its allies were
already ruling over 60% of India's geographical area with 43% of its population
before yesterday's verdict and the sweep has taken it to around 70% of the landmass
and 58% of the population. Even if we don't count Goa and Manipur in BJP's
stable as of now, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand make BJP the ruling party of 15
Indian states while the Congress, that has ruled India for almost 55 years in
its 70 years of independent, sovereign history, has shrunk to just five states
with Karnataka as the only big state in its fold. The party has limited
presence in another two states. The Congress has an alliance government in
Puducherry while it is the junior-most alliance partner in Bihar's ruling
coalition.
In terms of the geographical
spread, the Congress has shrunk to just 13% of Indian territory which houses
the country's 11% population. The BJP is now in all corners of the country, in
north India, in central India, in south India, in West India, in east India and
in north-east India, the footprint the Congress enjoyed earlier while the
Congress has reduced to only few pockets.
If, in spite of all these
bitter ground realities, the Congress leaders and spokespersons are still not
ready to see the writing on the wall, no one can help in its revival to reclaim
the past glory.
©SantoshChaubey