Even if we go by the
Congress' claim that it won three states, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, in the
recently concluded assembly polls, it still adds nothing significant to the
spread of its influence - geographically as well as in terms of the human
headcount. The Congress party has effectively lost the electoral space to act as
a national alternative to the BJP.
Assembly elections were held
in five states, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur these
results of which were announced on March 11. The BJP had swept Uttar Pradesh
and Uttarakhand while its alliance with the SAD had seen a crushing defeat in
Punjab where it was in the ruling coalition since 2007. The Congress had
emerged as the largest party in Goa and Manipur but the BJP stitched the
numbers fast to form coalition governments in both of these states.
The BJP and its allies were
already ruling over 60% of India's geographical area with 43% of its population
before the March 11 verdict, and the sweep this time has taken it to around 70%
of the landmass and 58% of the population.
With Uttar Pradesh,
Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur in BJP's stable, the BJP and its allies are now
the ruling party/coalition in 17 Indian states while the Congress, that has
ruled India for almost 55 years in its 70 years of independent, sovereign
history, has shrunk to just six states with Karnataka and Punjab as the only electorally
significant states in its fold. The party has ruling presence in another big state
- in Bihar - but it is the junior-most alliance partner in the ruling coalition
there.
In terms of geographical
spread, the Congress has shrunk to just 13% of Indian territory with only 11%
of the country's population residing in areas ruled by it. Even if, for a
moment, we consider that the BJP fails to prove majority in Goa and Manipur and
the Congress finally forms the governments, it cannot help the Congress much,
apart from giving consolation, as Goa and Manipur represent only 0.8% of
India's area and 0.34% of its population.
The BJP along with its
allies, is now in all corners of the country with its 17 state governments, in
north India, in central India, in south India, in West India, in east India and
in north-east India, the footprint the Congress enjoyed earlier while the
Congress has reduced to only few pockets.
India has 29 states and seven
Union territories. Polls are held in these 29 states and two of the Union
Territories, i.e., Delhi and Puducherry. The states where the BJP and its
allies have their governments now are - Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand,
Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Andhra Pradesh (NDA partner TDP), Jammu &
Kashmir (NDA partner PDP), Nagaland (NDA partner NPF) and Sikkim (NDA partner SDF).
The party is number two in Himachal Pradesh and Delhi. The BJP is also number 2
in Bihar if we see it as the grand alliance of JDU, RJD and Congress Vs the
BJP.
Other big states barring Karnataka
and Punjab, are all with the regional parties who have chosen not to ally with
the Congress - Tamil Nadu (AIADMK), Telangana (TRS), West Bengal (AITC), Odisha
(BJD) and Kerala (Left Front).
The Congress has ruling
presence in only two electorally significant states, Karnataka and Punjab. But
in Karnataka where elections are due early next year, its prospects don't look
good and there are very real chances that the huge anti-incumbency against the
Congress led government will allow the BJP to easily win the state. The other parties
in the Congress fold are all smaller states, i.e., Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya,
Mizoram and Puducherry.
©SantoshChaubey