Some analysts, including a recent opinion piece
in Al Jazeera, predict that South Asia (or more specifically the Indian Subcontinent) is poised to be the next worst crisis
hotbed of the world - with the region having three belligerent nuclear power
nations who are also neighbours - India, China and Pakistan – with historical
border disputes and the enmity thereof that has given rise to many wars and
consistent rush of skirmishes.
Well, to clear things first, India and
China have had historical enmity and border disputes but both countries are now
big enough economies to engage in a full scale bilateral war – China’s is the
world’s second largest economy and India is the third largest. They cannot and
they should not afford even the border skirmishes now and the recent
developments indicate that.
Yes, there are problems but these are now
basically rhetorical in nature as China’s authoritarian regime needs some tough
posturing to send home the message. Ideally, in the prevailing circumstances,
when China is now more of a ‘capitalist’ communist state, things should not go
beyond that. And it should be seen in the context of India’s space and military
prowess that can harm China enough to come to the negotiating table in case of a
full blown war.
The sanctity of China’s authoritarian
regime lies in how it manages and grows its economy. The nation certainly
cannot afford a Tiananmen now.
And with Pakistan, though China is the
country’s historical ally, it is not going to the extent to support Pakistan in
case of any hostility with India – coupled with the fact the US is now there to
support India against China. Also, China is facing Muslim insurgency in its Muslim
dominated regions that gets lifeline from Pakistan.
Any military confrontation between India
and China is damaging for the economies of both of the nations and they will
not risk it – let alone the spectre of full scale war.
And if a military confrontation will be
damaging for India, it will be annihilating for Pakistan. A blown out hostility
or a full scale war with a bigger country that is many times you militarily and
economically will be like inviting ‘the end of days’ for its all ‘powerful’ military
that now stands nowhere near to India.
The future of the Indian Subcontinent will
be driven by these ground-based realities – and the spectre of an economic
meltdown thereof - and not by the incessant war rhetoric of Pakistan - and not
by the toughly-worded posturing by India and China.
So, where are the next real crisis hotbeds –
the conflict theatres so volatile that they can send the world upside down – a world
bound by a globalized economy – the Korean Peninsula – or the South China Sea?
The ‘capitalist’ communist logic with China
applies even here. But, certainly, we all need to be worried about North Korea
and its young, obese, morose but mercurial dictator who is also insane.