The stage was set for the final
showdown on February 20, but then one of the principal protagonists suddenly left
the arena, giving walk over to his opponent.
And the opponent, the three-term
chief minister of Bihar, was inaugurated for the fourth term today.
Nitish Kumar is the chief
minister of Bihar again. And as he says - that his predecessor, Jitan Ram
Manjhi, who was handpicked by him last May, had derailed the state from the
path of progress - he has some eight months, as the current Bihar assembly is
completing its term on November 29, 2015,
to bring the state back to the growth
trajectory that he claims he had achieved for the state.
Nitish has been apologising for
leaving the office of Bihar's chief minister last year and letting Bihar on a
negative growth spiral and his 'Kejriwal act' is being much talked about and discussed.
Probably, after seeing the
brilliant success of Kejriwal's apology act, Nitish thought he could do the
same to deflect questions on his last year rhetoric that he would not come back
to the office unless he gets a fresh mandate from Bihar's voters.
Another pretext that he is
speaking about is Manjhi's misrule. Nitish says he was forced to come back as
people were disappointed and angry with governance of the day in Bihar.
Now that he is back, he has to
come out with 100% on his performance amid intense media and opposition
scrutiny that would run along with a union government headed by his bitter
political rival Narendra Modi.
While the good will go in
mitigating the 'bad' of his 'emotional decision' last year, any bad will have
amplified repercussions on his chances to score positively.
Can Nitish deliver when he has
just eight months, given the fact that he was 'forced' to come back as Manjhi
had brought bad days back?
The 'bad days' that he is also
responsible for as bringing in Manjhi was his unilateral decision.
Now, the BJP may not ask this
question to milk the better prospect of wooing the Mahadalit voters in the name
of 'Nitish insulting a Mahadalit leader and chief minister', the young and
educated voter would certainly think about it.
Also, the realpolitik of the day
is different. The good governance days of Bihar under Nitish Kumar were from a
coalition government with the BJP as an equal partner. It was in fact widely
analysed that the BJP ministers were better performers.
Now Nitish is dependent on Lalu
Yadav and his Rashtriya Janata Dal. Lalu is convicted in the fodder scam and is
barred from contesting polls. The Bihar of his days, either under him or his
wife's rule, was seen as a failed state, a state where development politics had
become a 'forbidden political paradigm'.
Nitish changed that. He rode to
the power promising development and delivered. But all this while, he was with
the BJP.
Now as he is with Lalu Yadav and
Bihar is heading for polls in few months, his political rivals will ask this
question day and night. Now, only time will tell (and polls will tell) how
effectively Nitish will be able to counter this question.
Nitish-Modi rivalry to surge:
Though Narendra Modi tweeted to congratulate Nitish Kumar after his swearing-in
ceremony and Nitish Kumar said the differences he had with Modi were ideological
in nature and there was nothing personal, the history of Nitish-Modi rivalry
says another episode is in making with the upcoming assembly polls in Bihar.
And we saw its first signs today
when, after taking oath, Nitish told everyone that the mandate of 2010 was in
his name only.
Now, Bihar is a make or break
electoral proposition for both, the BJP and the JD(U).
After the humiliating loss in
Delhi, the BJP must win Bihar to bounce back in the race of becoming a major
political force and that cannot happen without having a winning or a major
presence in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the two state that count for 120 Lok Sabha
seats and 37 Rajya Sabha members.
For Nitish, who had tied his
political future with Modi's political prospects, he is already on the back
foot, retracting on his 'quit rhetoric' of last year.
With Modi having the advantage of
the general elections win, a loss to Modi in Bihar polls would throw Nitish on
the political periphery of Bihar and he would find in the similar situation
Lalu Yadav is in.
Both, Modi and Nitish have their
'make or break' reasons to take on each other in the Bihar polls and each of
them will try all to outdo the other.
And for Jitan Ram Manjhi, the
chief minister till February 21, he was always a non-entity in Bihar's politics
before his sudden elevation. But his acts soon made it clear that Nitish had miscalculated
in reading him. The 'perceived yes man' soon started spreading out, undoing
moves by Nitish Kumar, transferring officials, installing his family members
and making overtures to reach out to others including the BJP. It was soon
going to be 'enough is enough' for Nitish Kumar to digest any further. His 'yes man' was working to dig his master's grounds
and the master was feeling increasingly unsettled. And it was just a matter of
days.
Now, how much relevant Manjhi is
going to remain will be gauged by the outcome of the polls only.
Though the BJP was seen in a
tight spot on its decision to support Manjhi in the trust vote, that it could
take only a day before, on February 19, after Manjhi's equally sudden demotion
on February 20, the day of the floor test when Manjhi resigned to flunk the
test, the party breathed easy.
Supporting Manjhi had the
inherent risk of alienating many caste blocks in the caste-ridden politics of
Bihar. Also, going with someone like Manjhi, who is perceived as an inefficient
leader with a trail of corruption and
nepotism to talk about, could have alienated the young and the educated voters
from the middle class.
Now, with the relief from
Manjhi's volte-face, the BJP, in fact, can expect to gain some good political
mileage. With the Lok Janshakti Party and Ram Vilas Paswan, the BJP is already
in comfortable position on Dalit votes with Paswans forming some 31% of Bihar's
Dalits.
Now, through Manjhi, the BJP
would try to alienate another chunk of the Dalit voters away from Nitish Kumar.
And Manjhi as a humiliated Dalit leader leading a front against Nitish Kumar would
be a perfect beginning.
Bihar is heading for interesting,
colourful political events in the run-up to the assembly polls.