Though it was
expected, it happened in a way that was unthinkable even for the diehard critics
of the Grand Old Party of India, the Indian National Congress.
Congress was expected
to spring some surprise, not only by the estimates of Congress, but by others
as well. While the polls were giving the party 5-8 seats, Congress’s own
estimate was around 10-12 seats.
But Ajay Maken's
realization - from 'we will score and spring a surprise' to 'we will respect
the mandate and would play whatever role public would want us to' - even before
the results were out – conveyed Congress had already accepted its doom in
Delhi's politics - with the projections of exit polls predicting a rout for the
party – not giving it more than five seats. Some polls even said that party would fail to
win even a single seat.
And Congress failed
to win even a single seat.
And the pounding is
so severe that even reading the riot act is not expected to help the party now.
Not only its vote share came under 10%, 62 of its candidates failed so
miserably that they lost their deposits. And it included names like Ajay Maken,
party’s chief-ministerial nominee - the candidates who were expected to win
based on their name and work
Delhi is yet
another marker in the downward journey of the Congress party. It has already been
pushed to the margins of Bihar's politics, where elections are due later this
year, and 'becoming politically irrelevant in Delhi' will certainly exacerbate
the process of the party becoming irrelevant in other states as well.
After scoring a
historic low in Lok Sabha polls with just 44 seats, Congress performed even
more miserably in different assembly polls of 2014.
In Andhra Pradesh,
it could not open its account.
In Telangana, the
state it created to reap its act's political windfall, it was down by 30 seats
to 21 seats in the 119 member strong assembly.
In Odisha, it could
win only 16 of 147.
In Maharashtra,
where it ruled for three terms, the party came third with 41 seats of 288.
After ruling
Haryana, it was pushed to the third spot with only 15 seats.
Similar stories
were repeated in Jharkhand and J&K where the party was pushed to the fourth
spot by the electorate with abysmally low numbers.
In further misery,
reports from Jharkhand say Congress is on the verge of split with four of its
six MLAs ready to join BJP. Add Delhi debacle to the list.
The grand fall of
the Grand Old Party of India is proving unstoppable.
What it tells us
about the scale of the fall of the Congress party?
Even after piling
up electoral losses and winding up influence, Congress has failed to go beyond
mere rhetoric.
Some resignations
are offered. They are swiftly denied. And the army of spokespersons is deployed
to shield the Nehru-Gandhi family. Rahul Gandhi did have accepted the responsibility
of debacles in past but the acceptance never followed the corrective action.
Going beyond
rhetoric means Congress needs to question Rahul Gandhi who has been leading the
party in elections for quite long now – and his record has been more than
questionable. After the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Congress has seen its base
shrinking on an epic scale in Indian politics. In the name of states having
more than ten Lok Sabha seats, Congress has just three – Karnataka, Kerala and
Assam. It has no MLA in Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and now in Delhi. It has been
pushed to the third or fourth spot in many states.
In the Hindi
heartland states that decide the direction of Indian politics, Uttar Pradesh
and Bihar with 120 Lok Sabha seats, Congress has become almost irrelevant.
In Uttar Pradesh,
Congress could win just two seats – of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi – in 2014
Lok Sabha polls with just 7.5% of votes. Though it saw some improvement in the 2012
assembly polls from 2007, with 28 seats in 11.65% vote share, it was just yet
another humiliating poll outcome for the party in the state – it remained
fourth in the 403-member assembly. In Bihar, party could win just 4 assembly
seats in 2010 polls with 8.4% vote share. In the Lok Sabha polls last year,
Congress could win just two seats and there was certainly no point in drawing
solace that its vote share remained 8.4% given the fact that the party had
contested the polls alone. In West Bengal too, another big state, its vote
share was around 9% - in 2010 assembly polls and in the Lok Sabha polls last
year.
Now, with AAP’s
emergence and victory in Delhi, the Congress has a direct threat to its future.
The last time when we heard of Congress in Delhi politics was in December 2013
assembly polls that were being seen as a BJP Vs Congress contest. But after the
polls, the underdog, Aam Aadmi Party, replaced Congress by emerging as the
second largest party and went on the form the government with Congress's
support who could win just 8 seats. And, just after a year, AAP ate into the
Congress vote pie in a big way bringing it down to 9% from 25% to sweep Delhi,
even with its deserter tag and Kejriwal's act of betrayal that left Delhi
without a government for a year.
Segments that voted
for Modi in Lok Sabha and assembly polls - middle class and youth - voted for
AAP this time. The lower income groups were already in its fold. Muslims in
these polls voted en-masse for AAP.
Muslims and lower
income groups have traditionally been voting for Congress forming the major
chunk of its 'secular plank'.
As AAP has given a
credible alternative to voters in Delhi, appealing to every section of the
society, building thus a secular plank, and as AAP spreads beyond Delhi,
something that is bound to happen with a spectacular Delhi show, there would always
be this possibility that Congress would face an existential threat to its
'secular plank' nationally, and thus an existential threat to its political
survival.
Congress needs a course
correction that goes beyond rhetoric we all know. We also know that the steps
should have been taken much earlier.
Don’t the Congress’s
first family and other Congress strategists know it?
They do not want to
question Rahul Gandhi and the first family, when even Rahul needs to question
himself now, if they have to save the future of Congress. Also, given the
Robert Vadra factor, the move to bring Priyanka Gandhi will prove counterproductive.
Congress must go
beyond posturing in addressing its fall.
Even a day’s delay
would exacerbate its misery.
Otherwise, Delhi would
further dent Congress’s prospects on its organizational spread in country. Even
the candidates who could have won of their name and work, lost because they were
Congress candidates.
If Congress doesn’t
act now, it would be staring at split, defections and mass exodus in coming
days.