Government Formation possibilities in Jammu & Kashmir
80 of the 87 assembly seats have been won by four main parties of the quadrangular
contest. The largest party PDP has won 28 seats. Second largest party BJP has
25 seats. Outgoing chief minister Omar Abdulla's National Conference has been
able to win 15 seats while Congress, which split up with NC before the
elections, could win only 12 seats.
This hung outcome makes the equations with these 7 seats highly interesting
as they can make life easier for some possible equations in this scenario. 2 of
these seats are with Sajjad Lone's People Conference (PC) that will go with
BJP. 2 of these seats are NC supported independent candidates out of total 3
independent winners. The other two seats are shared by Communist Party of India
(Marxist) (1) and People Democratic Front (Secular) (1).
Now, with these numbers, what can be the possibilities of government
formation in Jammu & Kashmir (going with the dictum that there are no
permanent friends or foes in politics):
PDP + BJP = 28 + 25 = 53
Comfortably above majority requirement of 44
seats - with 2 members of Sajjad Lone's PC, the alliance will be 55-member
strong - going by the reports, back-channel talks are on, as indicated by the
hints dropped by BJP and PDP spokespersons and other leaders - PDP would like
to give this possibility the maximum preference as a friendly government in
Delhi would make life much easier for the incoming state government
PDP + NC + Congress + NC supported Independents = 28 + 15 + 12 + 2 = 57
This one also makes for a stable equation in the number-game and going by the
'secular Vs communal' discourse, these three parties can come together to form
the government
PDP + NC + NC supported Independents = 28 + 15 + 2 = 45
A majority of
just one seat - can scout for one more independent and CPI(M) and PDP(S) winners
taking the tally to 48 but that will be a cumbersome task and the majority
obtained thus would be wafer thin, prone to manipulations
BJP + NC + PC + NC supported Independents = 25 + 15 + 2 + 2 = 44
Counting
Omar's options to join BJP in, now, this is an unacceptable majority number -
just on the mark - even with managing seats of CPI(M), PDP(S) and one
independent, (3 in all), the 47-member strong coalition would be a tricky
alternative
Are there other combinations possible folks?