GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014
Mukhtar Ansari decided to quit
the battlefield of Varanasi
saying he did so to consolidate the secular votes against Modi.
But it is going to help Modi
only. And therefore, we have reports analysing the possible behind the scene
deal between the BJP and Mukhtar on it.
That may, may not be. Mukhtar
would have got Muslim votes only this time because he would not be contesting on
a BSP ticket, and therefore was not to get the traditional BSP votes.
Mukhtar Ansari, who is in jail in
the case of a BJP MP murder, is a polarising figure and carries the ability to
polarise Muslim votes in his area, the belt of Ghazipur-Mau (he is contesting
from Ghosi that covers Mau district) that extends to Varanasi as well. He has
been openly communal in his acts and is facing case of inciting religious
violence.
The Muslim electorate in Varanasi, in 2009, should
have been around 3,00,000, if we go by the 2014 numbers (~3.5 lakh). In 2009
polls, when Mukhtar contested on BSP ticket, he got around 1,85,000 votes. In
addition to that, Mukhar got the traditional BSP votes, too. That made him a
close second to Murli Manohar Joshi who won by just over 17,000 votes. What we
need to keep in mind here is the low polling percentage of around 42% in 2009.
It was largely due to the BJP MPs failing to perform on a seat that happens to
be a BJP stronghold for quite some time now.
This time, with a clear Modi
factor, the polling percentage is expected to be significantly higher. And
Modi’s capacity to polarise the Hindu votes across the country is going to bring
the larger pie of over 14 lakh non-Muslim votes in Varanasi to the Lotus.
And in absence of SP/BSP tag, coupled
with expected higher voter turnout in favour of Modi, Mukhtar was staring at a
lower tally than the last time. There was very clear chance of it being even a
humiliating defeat. That would never be good for a person who wields his power on
fear.
Therefore, his proclamation of
‘not contesting from Varanasi to avoid the division of secular votes’ sounds
more like an exit route from an already decided defeat that is going to be
bigger this time.
Yes, his exit can help Arvind
Kejriwal, Ajai Rai and others with increased vote count by diverting the Muslim
votes to them.