Continued from:
WHEN IS THE UPA GOVERNMENT COMING DOWN?
What could be the political developments saving the day for the
UPA government to give it time to create the outreach to let it exploit the populist dole-outs like
the Food Security Bill or the direct cash subsidy transfer before the country goes to polls to elect the
next Lok Sabha?
Efforts to woo Nitish Kumar might succeed: After managing good enough number of people in the Adhikar Rally
held in Delhi, Nitish met almost every big political boss of the UPA government and got
a favourable response from each of them, from the prime minister to the finance
minister.
Now the reports say the UPA government is preparing to open its
coffers to give Bihar Special Status, a demand Nitish has been making for years and is now all out to make it a major
poll plank in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. If he doesn’t get it, he will
play the victim. If he gets it, he will take the credit of opening new avenues
of development for Bihar. A win-win situation, in any case, it seems for him,
as of now. Transfer of the Bihar Governor
Devanand Konwar to placate Nitish is yet another indicator of what the Congress
party is working on.
Ever since the Congress party started facing pull-out problems
from the allies in UPA-2, it has been working to woo the political parties like
Janata Dal (United) to manage numbers in the Lok Sabha. Nitish, who harbours prime-ministerial ambitions but doesn’t stand a chance before Narendra Modi in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), might jump the wagon to
join the UPA as his Bihar government can manage numbers without the BJP. JD(U)
has 115 assembly members and can easily manage the seven more required to cross
the half-way mark in 243-member Bihar legislative assembly. Others including
the Congress party have 15 members in the state legislative assembly.
A softening Mamata Banarjee: After withdrawing support and creating a drama
on many issues, Mamata’s All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) supported
the UPA government in the presidential election last year. Now her open
support to the UPA government over the UNHCR Resolution on Sri Lanka gives
sustainable hopes to the Congress party floor managers that Mamata could be
managed provided she is placated with what she has asking for long, something
that she needs desperately before going to the next general elections – funds
to get West Bengal rid of the mammoth debt and to implement development
projects.
Reports say the UPA government is seriously considering offering
special financial package to the West Bengal government.
And then, there is Mayawati: Mayawati would like to see the anti-incumbency consolidate even more in
Uttar Pradesh before going to the parliamentary polls and given the rapidly
deteriorating law and order situation in the state during the first year of Akhilesh Yadav’s rule, she has valid reasons to think that in another six months or
so, the anti-SP votes would be a sizeable chunk.
She has another reason to think so in case the SP pulls the plug.
In that case, the state would not be able to get any financial concession from
the central government, making it difficult for the state government to
implement populist schemes before the elections, and that would help Mayawati directly
as the Congress party and the BJP have lost the political ground in India’s
most populous state.
Now, JD(U)
with 20 MPs, AITC
with 19 MPs and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 21 MPs count for 60 MPs. Right now, the UPA has 227 members in the Lok Sabha and it is surviving with outside support of 58 MPs that includes
22 from the SP and 21 from the BSP.
Even if the 22 of 58 leave, the Congress party can manage it easily
with 39 MPs from the JD(U) and
the AITC. And add to that the possible bonus numbers from the DMK. The last UPA
ally to leave the coalition is reportedly not in favour of bringing down the
UPA government. A media report quoted K Anbazhagan, the DMK general secretary, as
saying, “"The Congress gave our party a lot of problems. But, we cannot
allow communal forces to form a government". That is additional 18 MPs for
the Congress party when it comes to the voting on government’s survival in the
Lok Sabha.
So, it is not going to happen now.