Extending from
UPA’S POPULIST SCHEMES, THE ELECTORAL MINDSET AND A 2013 GENERAL ELECTION
http://severallyalone.blogspot.in/2013/02/upas-populist-schemes-electoral-mindset.html
The real cause of worry that the
Congress party might not be realizing is an electoral trend that India witnessed
last year and a social trend that erupted from nowhere in 2011 and is
travelling ahead.
Conventionally, the congress
party doesn’t look at the educated and urban middle-class voters as its primary
vote bank, a class steadily rising in India. This is also the class
getting rapidly aware of its political and democratic rights. Though it’s a
long way to go for a significant change to happen, the process has already and
‘robustly’ begun the massive civil protests since 2011 show.
All the assembly elections last
year that had populous states like Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat
saw unexpected and massive polling percentage. The mammoth Uttar Pradesh shot
up from 46 per cent in 2007 to 60 per cent in 2012. Other states, too,
registered impressive turnouts - Punjab over 78 per cent, Goa over 80 per, Gujarat over 70 per cent while Himachal Pradesh over 75
per cent.
There might be slight variations
in these figures but what is important to see is the high jump in Uttar Pradesh
that sends maximum number of politicians to the Indian Parliament. Here, the
Congress party again failed miserably despite heavy Rahul Gandhi blitzkrieg.
When it is seen in the contrast
of the voter turnout in the Lok Sabha elections since the Independence, the trend should be worrying
for the Congress party.
The base percentage of the voter
turnout in the different Lok Sabha elections has been around 60 per cent. In
the last elections held in 2009 it was 58.43 per cent.
It is an accepted wisdom that the
educated and middle class or largely the urban population has remained
laid-back when it comes to exercising his electoral franchisee, i.e., casting
the vote.
That is changing now. The massive
turnout in the streets to protest government policies or the massive turnout in
the assembly elections tell us this ‘nonchalant’ class of voters is awakening.
And since the process began, the Congress party has been at the centrestage of
left, right and centre controversy.
Projecting Rahul and promoting a
youth-friendly image, at this stage, might prove too little, too late. It is
not as if the Congress party doesn’t realize it. The move to collect funds to
disburse funds for the populist election dole-outs like the direct transfer of
cash subsidy or food security or yet another farm debt waiver as Sachin Pilot*
said the other day are the desperate measures to lessen or overcome the impact
of the damage (or for that matter, sudden hangings of Afzal Guru!).
What might spoil the game of the
Congress party is a possible high voter turnout. If the turnout increases even
by 10 per cent and crosses the 70 per cent mark, it will be akin to hara-kiri
for the Congress party.
Any household that has paid over
Rs. 900 for LPG cylinder is not going to vote the Congress party in again. The
lot of such disgruntled voters is in millions because the delicate economic
balance of their families has been badly affected by the incessant price rise
of almost every commodity in last four years.
If they come out to vote, and
indeed, they would come out, as the recent civil protests and high poll
outcomes tell, it is going to write-off any positive that the Congress party is
expecting to get from the populist Budget announcements.
Also, it is not that the Congress
party is the sole claimant of the population segment (farmers, people from the
lower economical class, the slum dwellers, and so on) it is targeting with the
populist schemes. Now, the regional satraps, too, are putting forward their
claims effectively. It is not that the BJP doesn’t get votes from this segment.
Yes, in case of low turnouts, the Congress party has been able to get enough
number of votes to gain a positive swing in the voting pattern.
Banking on this vote bank while
alienating the rising middle class and the urban population is a political
suicide in the changed circumstances!
The need was a balancing act.
That NEED remains.
Why could no one in the grand old
party of India
read it?